Yankees vs Red Sox · Total runs·-110·projects 9.8 runs
Wed, May 13, 7:05 PM EDT
VerdictLean Over+4.0% · lean
Verdict
Lean Over
+4.0% · lean
Implied
50.0%
de-vigged
Model
54.0%
med conf
EV / $100
+$3.09
expected return
Kelly suggests
$9 / $1k
per $1k bankroll
Lower probabilityEvenHigher probability
−5%0%5%10%
+4.0%slight
+4.0%slight
Not financial advice · probability estimates, not predictions · bet responsibly
Tonight at Yankee Stadium, hosts with the total set at 9.5[1]. Our model projects 9.8 runs, a tilt toward the over.
Starting pitchers
(NYY): 3.94 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 1.15 WHIP across 56.2 IP this year [2]. Above-average control with strikeout stuff, but the model's variance comes from what happens after he leaves.
(BOS): 4.21 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.39 WHIP across 59 IP [3]. Walks are up and the WHIP suggests traffic on the bases.
Schedule density
The Yankees bullpen logged 4.2 IP last night[4]. Doval (closer), Bednar (setup), and Cruz (setup) are all on back-to-back use, leaving three important late-game arms effectively off-board. Boston's pen, by contrast, is on regular rest with only one inning thrown yesterday [5].
If this gets past the 6th inning, the Yankees are out of their three best relievers and Boston walks a ton. That's how this game gets to 10+ runs and the over hits.
Live nowWorld Cup 2026
The World Cup, fully wired in.
Every fixture, group and nation is live in chat and on the hub: tournament simulations, real starting XIs and the all-time record between any two countries. The same rich components the agent builds mid-answer.
Bar = share of simulations eliminated at each stage · numerals are percentages
Fig. WC-ATournament simulation
Projected lineups
Mexico4-3-3Projected
Canada4-2-3-1Projected
13
3
2
4
23
4
C
18
22
10
9
7
16
2
4
5
3
7
8
11
20
17
19
C
Mexico
Goalkeeper
O
13Ochoa
Defenders
S
3Sánchez
M
2Montes
V
4Vásquez
G
23Gallardo
Midfielders
EÁ
4Edson Álvarez(C)
C
18Chávez
L
22Lozano
Forwards
V
10Vega
G
9Giménez
A
7Antuna
Substitutes
Malagón, Pineda
Canada
Goalkeeper
C
16Crépeau
Defenders
J
2Johnston
V
4Vitória
C
5Cornelius
A
3Adekugbe
Midfielders
E
7Eustáquio
K
8Koné
B
11Buchanan
D
20David
L
17Larin
Forwards
D
19Davies(C)
Fig. WC-BStarting XIs on the pitch
Head to head · All-time
Brazil vs Argentina
Historical
Brazil
43wins
Meetings
110
26 drawn
Argentina
41wins
Brazil winsDrawsArgentina wins
Goals
166–164
Biggest Brazil win
5-1 (1960)
Biggest Argentina win
6-1 (1940)
Shootouts
3–1
Recent meetings
1-4Argentina won · FIFA World Cup qualification25 Mar 2025
0-1Argentina won · FIFA World Cup qualification21 Nov 2023
0-0Draw · FIFA World Cup qualification16 Nov 2021
0-1Argentina won · Copa América10 Jul 2021
0-1Argentina won · Superclásico de las Américas15 Nov 2019
Men's full internationals, 1872–present.
Fig. WC-CAll-time head-to-head
01Sourced, every time
Every number, one hover from its source.
Citations are first-class. Stats carry citations that reveal the underlying data: the player, the team, the splits. No vibes, just receipts.
Scoring efficiency, starters with 25+ MPG, 2024-25
Player
Team
PTS
TS%
USG%
eFG%
Net Rtg
26.2[50]
66.4%[50]
29.1%[50]
61.8%[50]
+10.2[50]
31.5[51]
63.4%[51]
32.8%[51]
56.1%[51]
+12.8[51]
30.2[52]
61.0%[52]
32.1%[52]
55.4%[52]
+4.6[52]
27.1[53]
59.2%[53]
28.4%[53]
54.8%[53]
+9.1[53]
26.4[54]
58.6%[54]
28.0%[54]
53.9%[54]
+6.2[54]
Fig. 01Stats table
02The verdict card
Every analysis ends with a single call.
Edge, implied probability, expected value, Kelly stake. Collapsed into one card with a lean or a pass. The math is transparent, the recommendation is clear.
Not financial advice · probability estimates, not predictions · bet responsibly
Fig. 02Verdict card
Player props · totals · spreads · moneylines · same card, same math
03DraftKings DFS, built in
Optimal lineups, five contest strategies.
Project fantasy points for every player on the slate, pick a strategy (chalk, moonshot, game stack, bring back, or steady), and the optimizer hands back the best lineup with salary, exposure, and diversity rules already enforced.
Chalk. Optimizes the projected median. Safe-floor build for cash games.
◆ChalkCash
Highest-projected player at each position. Pure expected value — consistency wins.
PosPlayerSalaryProjFPPGCeilP50+Val
PG
Quentin Grimes
PHI@NYK
$4,00040.7—85.024%10.2x
SG
Stephon Castle
SASvsMIN
$7,00037.8—68.513%5.4x
SF
Josh Hart
NYKvsPHI
$6,00034.0—70.610%5.7x
PF
Kyle Anderson
MIN@SAS
$3,20028.0—62.42%8.8x
C
Victor Wembanyama
SASvsMIN
$10,80049.5—90.048%4.6x
G
De'Aaron Fox
SASvsMIN
$6,90042.6—79.526%6.2x
F
Harrison Barnes
SASvsMIN
$3,10028.8—56.12%9.3x
UTIL
Anthony EdwardsQ
MIN@SAS
$8,70047.3—81.541%5.4x
Projected
308.7
Ceiling
593.7
Floor
137.1
Value Rank
Grimes
10.2x
Barnes
9.3x
Anderson
8.8x
Fox
6.2x
Hart
5.7x
Edwards
5.4x
Castle
5.4x
Wembanyama
4.6x
Key Stats
Salary used$49,700
Remaining$300
Budget99.4%
Top Projection
Wembanyama
49.5 pts · $10.8K
Best Value
Grimes
10.2x · +3.2 above avg
Value Rank
Grimes
10.2x
Barnes
9.3x
Anderson
8.8x
Fox
6.2x
Salary$49.7K / $50K
Budget99.4%
Top Projection
Wembanyama
49.5 pts · $10.8K
Best Value
Grimes
10.2x · +3.2 above avg
Value Rank
Grimes
10.2x
Barnes
9.3x
Anderson
8.8x
Fox
6.2x
Top Projection
Wembanyama
49.5 pts · $10.8K
Best Value
Grimes
10.2x · +3.2 above avg
Fig. 03DFS lineups
Live DraftKings slate · cash and tournament builds · full reasoning per pick
What this optimizer catchesFour design choices
Vegas-anchored
Projection model
Recent-form trends blended with the Vegas-implied team total. The optimizer doesn't chase noise.
Long-tail
Floor and ceiling
Realistic downside that never dips below zero, with upside that captures the breakout games.
Strategy-aware
Five contest modes
Chalk, Moonshot, Game Stack, Bring-Back, and Steady, each tuned for a different kind of contest.
3+ unique
Diversity and exposure
Generate multiple lineups with at least three unique players between any two and configurable exposure caps.
Read why a player is in or out, swap the strategy, and re-build in seconds.
04Vision
How a shooter shoots. How a pitcher pitches.
Ask where Paul Skenes hides his slider, or where Shai lives on the floor. The kind of scouting that used to take an analyst, now answered the moment you ask.
Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander
Thunder•G
2024-25
Accuracy
Frequency
Hover hexes for frequency and accuracy
Fig. 04AShot chart
Paul Skenes
Pirates· SP· 2024· As Pitcher· 1,332 tracked · 982 in zone
FF
98.8 mph
596 tracked · 454 in zone
FS
94 mph
374 tracked · 263 in zone
CU
83 mph
133 tracked · 102 in zone
ST
84.7 mph
125 tracked · 95 in zone
SL
86.6 mph
67 tracked · 51 in zone
CH
87.3 mph
37 tracked · 17 in zone
LowHigh
Catcher’s View
Fig. 04BStrike zone
05Spatial
Where the ball ends up, and why it matters.
Every batted ball drawn at the spot it landed, colored by outcome. Useful for park shifts, platoon questions, and watching a hitter’s profile tilt in real time.
Aaron Judge
Yankees· OF· 2024· 389 batted balls
Fig. 05ASpray chart
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Braves· OF· 2023· 562 batted balls
Fig. 05BSpray chart
06Head to head
The matchup that actually matters.
Find the matchups that move the line. Compare any hitter against an opposing staff, any scorer against the defenders who actually guard him, and toggle metrics without ever leaving the card.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, matchup splits vs Denver
Guard · 6'6" · 4 G · 37.8 MPG vs DEN · 2024-25
Tracked-minute splits · playoff scouting set
Defender
Tracked possessions
FG%
Vs season average
Aaron
GordonDEN
Forward · 6'8"
52.0
4 G · 18:24 tracked min
50.0%
16 FGA · 5 3PA
-3.5%FG% vs season averagePositive means the offensive player performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Jamal
MurrayDEN
Guard · 6'4"
41.0
4 G · 14:02 tracked min
42.9%
14 FGA · 4 3PA
-10.6%FG% vs season averagePositive means the offensive player performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Nikola
JokicDEN
Center · 6'11"
38.0
4 G · 12:48 tracked min
63.6%
11 FGA · 3 3PA
+10.1%FG% vs season averagePositive means the offensive player performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Kentavious
Caldwell-PopeDEN
Guard · 6'5"
29.0
3 G · 9:36 tracked min
33.3%
9 FGA · 2 3PA
-20.2%FG% vs season averagePositive means the offensive player performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Michael
Porter Jr.DEN
Forward · 6'10"
22.0
3 G · 7:18 tracked min
62.5%
8 FGA · 3 3PA
+9.0%FG% vs season averagePositive means the offensive player performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Fig. 06ADefender matchups
Aaron Judge vs Boston Red Sox pitching staff
OF · NYY · 2024
Career splits · toggle metric, inspect rows
Pitcher
At-bats
wOBA
Vs season avg
Red Sox starters
Brayan
BelloBOS
RHP · SP
14
6 H · 3 HR · 2 K · 4 BB
.711
K% 11.1% · BB% 22.2%
+.233wOBA vs season averagePositive means the batter performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Kutter
CrawfordBOS
RHP · SP
11
3 H · 1 HR · 4 K · 2 BB
.445
K% 30.8% · BB% 15.4%
-.033wOBA vs season averagePositive means the batter performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Tanner
HouckBOS
RHP · SP
9
1 H · 5 K · 1 BB
.182
K% 50.0% · BB% 10.0%
-.296wOBA vs season averagePositive means the batter performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Nick
PivettaBOS
RHP · SP
13
5 H · 2 HR · 3 K · 1 BB
.598
K% 21.4% · BB% 7.1%
+.120wOBA vs season averagePositive means the batter performed better than his season average in this matchup. Negative means worse than his season average.
Fig. 06BPitcher matchups
07Who uses it
Three ways people use it.
Built around workflows we actually live in. The layout, the cached bridges, and the citation chain all serve someone checking their work under deadline.
I.
The DFS grinder
Full DraftKings slate ingestion: salary, lock time, game matchup.
Projection pipeline with Vegas implied-total anchoring.
Optimizer with five contest strategies, diversity, and exposure caps.
Lineups visible in chat with full reasoning behind each pick.
II.
The prop bettor
Defender-matchup splits, platoon splits, park factors.
Game-log breakdowns with over/under on any stat line.
Opponent pace, defensive rating, and DVP baked into projections.
Implied-probability math you can scan, not re-derive.
III.
The analyst
Statcast, splits, advanced stats. All cached and source-linked.
Native code-exec sandbox for ad-hoc Python questions.
Citations link to raw tool output, not a press release.
Copy the methodology into the next memo; keep the trail.
08Coverage
Three competitions live today. More on the bench.
NBA, MLB, and the World Cup are the full build: shot charts, Statcast, match forecasts, matchup tables, DFS optimizer, every tool enriched and cached. Tap a sport you want next, we weight the roadmap by demand.