Courtside Lab · Experiment

Long-Run Variance

Place the same positive-edge bet hundreds of times to see how long variance can keep a bettor underwater.

The experimentInteractive · no signup
Simulation Parameters
implied 52.4%·edge +2.6%
Cumulative profit over bets200 runs · linear scale
-$100-$80-$60-$40-$20$0$20$40$60$80$1000255075100BETS →median10th–90th %EV linezero

A good bet pays off on average, over the long run, not every night. The dashed blue line is where your profit would sit if there were no luck involved. The simulated paths show where it actuallylands. Even with a real edge, the range of outcomes is wide, and being down for hundreds of bets in a row is normal, not a sign your read was wrong. The edge only shows up reliably over thousands of bets.

Frequently asked2 questions
If a bet is +EV, why am I losing?
Expected value is a long-run average. Over a small sample, variance dominates, a +EV bettor can be down for hundreds of bets before the edge shows up.
How many bets until the edge shows?
It depends on the edge and odds, but the simulator lets you see how the spread of outcomes narrows around the EV line as the sample grows.
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