Courtside Lab · Experiment

Parlay Reality Check

Simulate a parlay repeatedly to show how rarely it actually cashes versus betting the legs straight.

The experimentInteractive · no signup
Parlay Parameters
combined: 6.25%
Win probability by leg countper-leg 50.0% · 4 legs
0%15%30%45%60%150.0%225.0%312.5%4LEGS →
Season grid100 bets · 4 cashed · 96 missed
Cash
Miss
4.0%Parlay cash rate
≈ 1 in 16Frequency
4Times it cashed
50.0%Single-leg rate

Every leg must hit. Combined probability is the product of each leg's win chance, so adding legs multiplies the difficulty, not adds it. A 4-leg parlay at 50% per leg cashes just 6.25% of the time: about once every 16 bets. The grid below shows how rarely that green square actually shows up.

Frequently asked2 questions
Why are parlays so hard to win?
Every leg must hit, so the combined probability is the product of each leg's chance, it falls fast as you add legs. The simulator shows the real cash frequency over a season.
Are parlays ever worth it?
They carry more variance and usually more vig per leg. The simulator lets you compare a parlay's hit rate to betting the same legs straight.
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