round_of_32Scheduled
MexMexico
vs
EcuEcuador
Jul 1, 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Forecast

Win probability

● Mexico is a slight favourite in a tight, low-scoring game.

Win probability
Chance of each result in regulation (90′)
★ Mexico 44%
MexMexico win44%
Draw31%
EcuEcuador win25%
Forecast

Score distribution

Score distribution
Probability of each exact scoreline
Low-scoring lean · 1.88 xG
EcuEcuador goals →
MexMexico goals ↓
0
1
2
3
4
5+
0
15
12
4
1
0
0
1
17
13
5
1
0
0
2
10
7
3
1
0
0
3
4
3
1
0
0
0
4
1
1
0
0
0
0
5+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mexico winDrawEcuador win
Most likely scoreline
1–0Mexico v Ecuador17%
Likeliest scorelines
1–017%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–010%
29%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Both teams score
History

Head to head

26 all-time meetings14-8-4
Mexico 14W8D4W Ecuador
Goals 43–27
Recent meetings
1-1Friendly2025
0-0Copa América2024
0-0Friendly2022
2-3Friendly2021
3-2Friendly2019
Ones to watch

Top players

MexMexico
Raúl JiménezFW
Julián QuiñonesFW
Roberto AlvaradoFW
Santiago GiménezFW
EcuEcuador
Jordy CaicedoFW
Enner ValenciaFW
John YeboahFW
Anthony ValenciaFW
Recent form

Team form

MexMexicoForm
3W 0D 0L
WCzechiaCze0 – 3MexMexicoJun 25, 2026 · Group A
WMexicoMex1 – 0SouSouth KoreaJun 19, 2026 · Group A
WMexicoMex2 – 0SouSouth AfricaJun 11, 2026 · Group A
EcuEcuadorForm
1W 1D 1L
WEcuadorEcu2 – 1GerGermanyJun 25, 2026 · Group E
DEcuadorEcu0 – 0CurCuraçaoJun 21, 2026 · Group E
LIvory CoastIvo1 – 0EcuEcuadorJun 14, 2026 · Group E
Related
Mexico & all teamsTournament odds boardFull schedule
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