World Cup 2026 winner odds, day by day

Climbing: Australia +15 to #21, Senegal +3 to #17, Saudi Arabia +3 to #35. Drifting: Bosnia & Herzegovina -5 to #34, Panama -5 to #44, Ecuador -4 to #22.

# ▲	Nation	Win prob	Δ since Jun 12	Rank Δ
1	France	16.4%	▲1.7pp	▲ 1
2	Spain	12.2%	▼2.8pp	▼ 1
3	England	11.7%	▲1.7pp	–
4	Argentina	9.1%	▲1.3pp	▲ 2
5	Portugal	8.3%	▼1.5pp	▼ 1
6	Brazil	7.1%	▼0.9pp	▼ 1
7	Germany	5.7%	▲0.2pp	–
8	Netherlands	4.4%	▲0.3pp	–
9	Norway	2.9%	–0.0pp	–
10	Morocco	2.0%	▲0.4pp	▲ 2
11	Belgium	2.0%	▼0.2pp	▼ 1
12	USA	1.9%	▲0.4pp	▲ 2
13	Colombia	1.8%	▼0.2pp	▼ 2
14	Japan	1.6%	▲0.1pp	▲ 1
15	Mexico	1.5%	▼0.1pp	▼ 2
16	Switzerland	1.1%	▼0.1pp	–
17	Senegal	1.0%	▲0.2pp	▲ 3
18	Uruguay	0.9%	▼0.2pp	▼ 1
19	Croatia	0.9%	▼0.1pp	–
20	Sweden	0.8%	▲0.2pp	▲ 2
21	Australia	0.8%	▲0.6pp	▲ 15
22	Ecuador	0.6%	▼0.4pp	▼ 4
23	Canada	0.6%	–0.0pp	–
24	Austria	0.6%	–0.0pp	–
25	Turkey	0.5%	▼0.3pp	▼ 4
26	South Korea	0.4%	▲0.1pp	–
27	Paraguay	0.4%	–0.0pp	▼ 2
28	Ivory Coast	0.4%	▲0.1pp	–
29	Scotland	0.3%	▼0.1pp	▼ 2
30	Egypt	0.2%	–0.0pp	–
31	Algeria	0.2%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
32	Czech Republic	0.2%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
33	Ghana	0.2%	▼0.1pp	▼ 2
34	Bosnia & Herzegovina	0.2%	▼0.1pp	▼ 5
35	Saudi Arabia	0.1%	▲0.1pp	▲ 3
36	Iran	0.1%	–0.0pp	▼ 1
37	Tunisia	0.1%	▼0.1pp	▼ 3
38	DR Congo	0.1%	–0.0pp	▼ 1
39	Qatar	0.1%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
40	Cape Verde	0.1%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
41	New Zealand	0.1%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
42	South Africa	0.0%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
43	Iraq	0.0%	–0.0pp	▲ 1
44	Panama	0.0%	–0.0pp	▼ 5
45	Uzbekistan	0.0%	–0.0pp	–
46	Curaçao	0.0%	–0.0pp	–
47	Jordan	0.0%	–0.0pp	–
48	Haiti	0.0%	–0.0pp	–

Method. Probabilities are de-vigged from bookmaker outright odds (the overround is removed so the field sums to ~100%), averaged across the sportsbooks we track, and captured once per UTC day. Odds move on results, injuries and team news, not certainties. Not betting advice.